Intra-day Solar and Power Forecast for Optimization of Intraday Market Participation

The prediction of solar irradiance enhances reliability in photovoltaic (PV) solar plant generation and grid integration. In Colombia, PV plants face penalties if energy production deviates beyond governmental thresholds from intraday market offers. This research employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional-LSTM (Bi-LSTM) models, utilizing meteorological data from a PV plant in El Paso, Cesar, Colombia, to predict solar irradiance with a 6-hour horizon and 10-minute resolution. While Bi-LSTM showed superior performance, the LSTM model achieved comparable results with significantly reduced training time (6 hours versus 18 hours), making it computationally advantageous. The LSTM predictions were averaged to create an hourly resolution model, evaluated using Mean Absolute Error, Root-Mean-Square Error, Normalized Root-Mean-Square Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error metrics. Comparison with the Global Forecast System (GFS) revealed similar performance, with both models effectively capturing daily solar irradiance patterns. The forecast model integrates with an Object-Oriented power production model, enabling accurate energy offers in the intraday market while minimizing penalty costs.

CT-PatchTST: Channel-Time Patch Time-Series Transformer for Long-Term Renewable Energy Forecasting

Accurately predicting renewable energy output is crucial for the efficient integration of solar and wind power into modern energy systems. This study develops and evaluates an advanced deep learning model, Channel-Time Patch Time-Series Transformer (CT-PatchTST), to forecast the power output of photovoltaic and wind energy systems using annual offshore wind power, onshore wind power, and solar power generation data from Denmark. While the original Patch Time-Series Transformer(PatchTST) model employs a channel-independent (CI) approach, it tends to overlook inter-channel relationships during training, potentially leading to a loss of critical information. To address this limitation and further leverage the benefits of increased data granularity brought by CI, we propose CT-PatchTST. This enhanced model improves the processing of inter-channel information while maintaining the advantages of the channel-independent approach. The predictive performance of CT-PatchTST is rigorously analyzed, demonstrating its ability to provide precise and reliable energy forecasts. This work contributes to improving the predictability of renewable energy systems, supporting their broader adoption and integration into energy grids.

Learning a local trading strategy: deep reinforcement learning for grid-scale renewable energy integration

Variable renewable generation increases the challenge of balancing power supply and demand. Grid-scale batteries co-located with generation can help mitigate this misalignment. This paper explores the use of reinforcement learning (RL) for operating grid-scale batteries co-located with solar power. Our results show RL achieves an average of 61% (and up to 96%) of the approximate theoretical optimal (non-causal) operation, outperforming advanced control methods on average. Our findings suggest RL may be preferred when future signals are hard to predict. Moreover, RL has two significant advantages compared to simpler rules-based control: (1) that solar energy is more effectively shifted towards high demand periods, and (2) increased diversity of battery dispatch across different locations, reducing potential ramping issues caused by super-position of many similar actions.

Deep Learning-Based Electricity Price Forecast for Virtual Bidding in Wholesale Electricity Market

Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making accurate forecasting critical for virtual bidders, reducing uncertainty and maximizing profits. This study presents a Transformer-based deep learning model to forecast the price spread between real-time and day-ahead electricity prices in the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) market. The proposed model leverages various time-series features, including load forecasts, solar and wind generation forecasts, and temporal attributes. The model is trained under realistic constraints and validated using a walk-forward approach by updating the model every week. Based on the price spread prediction results, several trading strategies are proposed and the most effective strategy for maximizing cumulative profit under realistic market conditions is identified through backtesting. The results show that the strategy of trading only at the peak hour with a precision score of over 50% produces nearly consistent profit over the test period. The proposed method underscores the importance of an accurate electricity price forecasting model and introduces a new method of evaluating the price forecast model from a virtual bidder's perspective, providing valuable insights for future research.

CloudCast -- Total Cloud Cover Nowcasting with Machine Learning

Cloud cover plays a critical role in weather prediction and impacts several sectors, including agriculture, solar power generation, and aviation. Despite advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, forecasting total cloud cover remains challenging due to the small-scale nature of cloud formation processes. In this study, we introduce CloudCast, a convolutional neural network (CNN) based on the U-Net architecture, designed to predict total cloud cover (TCC) up to five hours ahead. Trained on five years of satellite data, CloudCast significantly outperforms traditional NWP models and optical flow methods. Compared to a reference NWP model, CloudCast achieves a 24% lower mean absolute error and reduces multi-category prediction errors by 46%. The model demonstrates strong performance, particularly in capturing the large-scale structure of cloud cover in the first few forecast hours, though later predictions are subject to blurring and underestimation of cloud formation. An ablation study identified the optimal input features and loss functions, with MAE-based models performing the best. CloudCast has been integrated into the Finnish Meteorological Institute's operational nowcasting system, where it improves cloud cover forecasts used by public and private sector clients. While CloudCast is limited by a relatively short skillful lead time of about three hours, future work aims to extend this through more complex network architectures and higher-resolution data. CloudCast code is available at https://github.com/fmidev/cloudcast.

Machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance in Chile

By the end of 2023, renewable sources cover 63.4% of the total electric power demand of Chile, and in line with the global trend, photovoltaic (PV) power shows the most dynamic increase. Although Chile's Atacama Desert is considered the sunniest place on Earth, PV power production, even in this area, can be highly volatile. Successful integration of PV energy into the country's power grid requires accurate short-term PV power forecasts, which can be obtained from predictions of solar irradiance and related weather quantities. Nowadays, in weather forecasting, the state-of-the-art approach is the use of ensemble forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. However, ensemble forecasts still tend to be uncalibrated or biased, thus requiring some form of post-processing. The present work investigates probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance for Regions III and IV in Chile. For this reason, 8-member short-term ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance for calendar year 2021 are generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which are then calibrated using the benchmark ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method based on a censored Gaussian law, and its machine learning-based distributional regression network (DRN) counterpart. Furthermore, we also propose a neural network-based post-processing method resulting in improved 8-member ensemble predictions. All forecasts are evaluated against station observations for 30 locations, and the skill of post-processed predictions is compared to the raw WRF ensemble. Our case study confirms that all studied post-processing methods substantially improve both the calibration of probabilistic- and the accuracy of point forecasts. Among the methods tested, the corrected ensemble exhibits the best overall performance. Additionally, the DRN model generally outperforms the corresponding EMOS approach.

Weather-Informed Probabilistic Forecasting and Scenario Generation in Power Systems

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power grids presents significant challenges due to their intrinsic stochasticity and uncertainty, necessitating the development of new techniques for reliable and efficient forecasting. This paper proposes a method combining probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power in high-dimensional contexts. By incorporating weather covariates and restoring spatio-temporal correlations, the proposed method enhances the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in RES. Extensive numerical experiments compare the effectiveness of different time series models, with performance evaluated using comprehensive metrics on a real-world and high-dimensional dataset from Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). The results highlight the importance of weather information and demonstrate the efficacy of the Gaussian copula in generating realistic scenarios, with the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model showing superior performance.

Computational Imaging for Long-Term Prediction of Solar Irradiance

The occlusion of the sun by clouds is one of the primary sources of uncertainties in solar power generation, and is a factor that affects the wide-spread use of solar power as a primary energy source. Real-time forecasting of cloud movement and, as a result, solar irradiance is necessary to schedule and allocate energy across grid-connected photovoltaic systems. Previous works monitored cloud movement using wide-angle field of view imagery of the sky. However, such images have poor resolution for clouds that appear near the horizon, which reduces their effectiveness for long term prediction of solar occlusion. Specifically, to be able to predict occlusion of the sun over long time periods, clouds that are near the horizon need to be detected, and their velocities estimated precisely. To enable such a system, we design and deploy a catadioptric system that delivers wide-angle imagery with uniform spatial resolution of the sky over its field of view. To enable prediction over a longer time horizon, we design an algorithm that uses carefully selected spatio-temporal slices of the imagery using estimated wind direction and velocity as inputs. Using ray-tracing simulations as well as a real testbed deployed outdoors, we show that the system is capable of predicting solar occlusion as well as irradiance for tens of minutes in the future, which is an order of magnitude improvement over prior work.

Predicting Solar Energy Generation with Machine Learning based on AQI and Weather Features

This paper addresses the pressing need for an accurate solar energy prediction model, which is crucial for efficient grid integration. We explore the influence of the Air Quality Index and weather features on solar energy generation, employing advanced Machine Learning and Deep Learning techniques. Our methodology uses time series modeling and makes novel use of power transform normalization and zero-inflated modeling. Various Machine Learning algorithms and Conv2D Long Short-Term Memory model based Deep Learning models are applied to these transformations for precise predictions. Results underscore the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating enhanced prediction accuracy with Air Quality Index and weather features. We achieved a 0.9691 $R^2$ Score, 0.18 MAE, 0.10 RMSE with Conv2D Long Short-Term Memory model, showcasing the power transform technique's innovation in enhancing time series forecasting for solar energy generation. Such results help our research contribute valuable insights to the synergy between Air Quality Index, weather features, and Deep Learning techniques for solar energy prediction.

Inverse Deep Learning Ray Tracing for Heliostat Surface Prediction

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants play a crucial role in the global transition towards sustainable energy. A key factor in ensuring the safe and efficient operation of CSP plants is the distribution of concentrated flux density on the receiver. However, the non-ideal flux density generated by individual heliostats can undermine the safety and efficiency of the power plant. The flux density from each heliostat is influenced by its precise surface profile, which includes factors such as canting and mirror errors. Accurately measuring these surface profiles for a large number of heliostats in operation is a formidable challenge. Consequently, control systems often rely on the assumption of ideal surface conditions, which compromises both safety and operational efficiency. In this study, we introduce inverse Deep Learning Ray Tracing (iDLR), an innovative method designed to predict heliostat surfaces based solely on target images obtained during heliostat calibration. Our simulation-based investigation demonstrates that sufficient information regarding the heliostat surface is retained in the flux density distribution of a single heliostat, enabling deep learning models to accurately predict the underlying surface with deflectometry-like precision for the majority of heliostats. Additionally, we assess the limitations of this method, particularly in relation to surface accuracy and resultant flux density predictions. Furthermore, we are presenting a new comprehensive heliostat model using Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline (NURBS) that has the potential to become the new State of the Art for heliostat surface parameterization. Our findings reveal that iDLR has significant potential to enhance CSP plant operations, potentially increasing the overall efficiency and energy output of the power plants.